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The Trump referendum: Possible lessons from 2018 midterms

06 November 2018

However, two years after an election that proved pollsters and political commentators wrong, nothing is certain on the eve of the first nationwide elections of the Trump presidency.

At stake are all 435 U.S. House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 state governorships - and Mr. Trump's ability to keep his agenda on track. And 35 Senate seats are in play, as are nearly 40 governorships and the balance of power in virtually every state legislature.

Midterm elections 2018: Senate forecast (Pic: FIVETHIRTYEIGHT) Midterm elections 2018: House of Representatives forecast (Pic: FIVETHIRTYEIGHT) Will Donald Trump still be president?

President Donald Trump landed in IN for a campaign rally and took a low-key posture on the prospect of a Democratic takeover - saying he doesn't care if they try to force the release of his taxes and he'll just work "differently" if they win.

Democrats could derail Trump's legislative agenda for the next two years should they win control of the House or the Senate.

"There's something happening out there folks", Trump said, comparing the energy at his recent rallies to those he held in the final days of the 2016 election.

They need to claim an additional 23 seats, which most analysts agree is achievable.

In the final hours before the election, Mr Trump has criss-crossed the country, pitching for key candidates in critical states such as Florida and Missouri.

"I don't care", he told reporters as he arrived in IN for a campaign rally.

Mr Trump's Republican coalition is increasingly becoming older, whiter, more male and less likely to have a college degree.

The party hopes younger voters, suburban moderates and minorities will be drawn to the polls to react against the president's rhetoric.

On Monday, O'Rourke depicted the contest as an epic event, saying that Texans "will define the future, not just of Texas, but of this country, not just this generation but every generation that follows".

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Also a record number of women - 200 Democrats and 60 Republicans - are candidates for Congress, where they now hold only about 20 percent of the seats.

Some Democrats and Trump critics have long suggested the records would show the president is not worth as much as he claims. Last week, Democratic House leader Nancy Pelosi predicted it would happen.

Groups preferring the GOP in the latest poll include men, people over the age of 40, whites, and minority voters other than the black community. And that may be where the Democrats have a glimmer of hope that they can make gains in Congress Tuesday. They are also poised to make history with a number of LGBT candidates and Muslims up and down the ballot. "This compares to the mid- to high 20s for most weeks during President Obama's a year ago in office".

"By the way, these aren't babies", Trump said in Pensacola, Florida on November 3.

"All across the country, what I'm seeing is a great awakening", he said. "But it'll be a start".

The midterms are being watched beyond America's borders - as Trump's moves cause ripples internationally.

With a walking caravan of immigrants weeks away from reaching the border, Mr Trump dispatched more than 5,000 troops to the region. "They could only go up. but we don't know where these ballots are going".

In a Fox News op-ed on Monday he wrote that the USA "has the best economy in the history of our country - and hope has finally returned to cities and towns across America".

The last Rasmussen Reports poll before the election regarding the Congressional races up for grabs has good news for the GOP: The Republican Party leads the Democrats by one point.

It may not be easy for Democrats to take the House majority, since they will have to win a string of districts in Republican territory and get strong turnout, but they head into Tuesday in position to do so - even if narrowly.

"They'll do anything and everything they can to impeach him", she said.

Results will have far reaching consequences for both Mr Trump's powers and the speed of which bills are able to pass into law.

The Trump referendum: Possible lessons from 2018 midterms