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Industrial production rises 6.2%

14 November 2017

China's industrial output slowed in October, official data showed, as authorities fight smog by clamping down on pollution produced by heavy industries.

China provided us with a glimpse of their near full-year performance from their previous October economic data, some of the highlights were as follows; Industrial output, retail sales, and their fixed-asset investment. (Note that past year, October retail sales disappointed consensus while November surprised sharply to the upside.) Also, while this shopping spree was initiated by online shops, increasingly traditional stores are being forced into offering discounts on the day to stay in competition.

Fixed asset investment also cooled with the year-to-date rate of growth slipping from 7.5% in September to 7.3% in October (consensus: 7.3%).

Growth of property investment slowed to 7.8 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months, 0.3 percentage point lower than that of the first nine months.

China's economy has surprised financial markets with robust growth of almost 6.9% in the first nine months of this year, underpinned by a recovery in its manufacturing and industrial sectors, thanks to a government-led infrastructure spending spree, a resilient property market and unexpected strength in exports.

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The world's second-largest economy has further reduced its pace of growth, with factory output missing analysts' expectations.

Liu Aihua, a NBS spokeswoman, said that fluctuations in the economic data in October did not change the overall trend of China's steady economic growth with improved quality and efficiency.

That missed forecasts for 6.3% and was down from 6.6% in September. "However, these drags continue to be partly offset by still strong infrastructure spending". "But this support seems unlikely to last given that local governments are set to reduce spending in the final months of the year in order to meet budget targets".

Factories also closed during last month's Communist Party congress, during which President Xi Jinping called for more efforts to protect the environment. "The economy is fundamentally strong in other areas.industrial production is only moderating, it's still at really high levels", SHKF's Short said. "I'd say we are quite optimistic".

Industrial production rises 6.2%